Market Summary

The previous day, buyers gained the upper hand and the upward trend was recognized after breaking above last week's high, but for the time being, we need to carefully assess whether this trend will continue.

Today's environment is likely to be characterized by a combination of high U.S. interest rates and risk-off sentiment in the stock market, while the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential is likely to keep the market in a high price range.

Assumed range

The assumed range is around 155.00-155.80, with the upper range to confirm the strong selling pressure and the lower range to confirm the strong desire to buy at the lower range.

In Tokyo time, we will observe price movements within the range and volume bias to determine the direction from Europe onward.

tactics

Our basic stance is to avoid chasing higher prices and wait for an adjustment phase.

If U.S. interest rates and stock prices remain calm at the lower end of the range, we will consider diversified buying.

On the other hand, if the price breaks clearly below the assumed range, we will shelve the buy-and-hold scenario and prepare for a short-term sell-back.

trigger

The trigger to the upside is whether or not the previous day's high can be exceeded on an entity basis and maintained at the close to determine whether or not the bullishness can continue.

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To the downside, resistance at the same level after the break below 155.00 will be a guideline to confirm the expansion of the adjustment scenario.

In the time frame, we will focus on the initial reaction immediately after the release of the U.S. Trade Price Index and Industrial Production and the direction of establishment thereafter

override condition

If the daily price falls back with a long upper whisker and the lower boundary of the assumed range falls below the lower boundary of the range, the assumption of a push-buy will be considered invalid.

Continued dollar strength scenario needs to be reviewed in the event of simultaneous stock market weakness and yen appreciation due to a sharp rise in long-term interest rates in Japan and reports of a change in the Bank of Japan's stance

risk event

Today, there is a concentration of indicators that tend to affect interest rates and risk appetite, such as the U.S. Trade Price Index, Industrial Production, and Investment in U.S. Securities, and volatility is likely to increase depending on the results.

Japanese Machinery Orders and Intervention Observations by Officials Article Geopolitical Risk Headlines are Also Considered as Temporary Sudden Volatility Factors

Position Management

Since trading will be conducted at high prices, new positions will be smaller than usual and will be divided into multiple openings and closings.

Take profits frequently when the momentum of the previous day's high price renewal slows or when a break below short-term support begins to be recognized, in order to avoid a sharp decline in unrealized profits.

It is safe to keep the stop-loss policy outside the expected range and mechanically execute it at the level where the scenario can be judged to be broken while withstanding the noise before and after the event.

checklist

Is the direction of reaction of U.S. interest rates and stock prices consistent with the results of major U.S. indices?

Are there any changes in Japanese long-term interest rates or BOJ-related headlines?

Is USDJPY within the expected range or are there increasing signs of a range break?

Market Summary

The previous day was weak but only slightly so, and the direction of the market remained limited amid the trend to search for a push.

With key European officials' comments and U.S. employment- and housing-related indicators expected today, the environment is likely to be characterized by a wait-and-see attitude toward materials.

The market continues to search for lower prices near the milestone, and in the short term, the situation is likely to focus on pre-event adjustments.

Assumed range

Assuming a range in the high 1.15s to low 1.16s.

The market is easily aware of thick trading both up and down, and the ground is easy to return to even in the event of a sudden swing.

The composition is likely to remain in a narrow price range until the event results give a sense of direction.

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on range rotation and avoid extreme ups and downs.

Aim for a push near the milestone and a return to the market, assuming a short stay.

In light of the directionless phase, priority will be given to taking small gains while holding down excessive price expectations.

trigger

If the statements of key figures in the European hour are either hawkish or dovish, it will trigger short-term turbulence.

Beware of dollar-led swings if the results of U.S. employment and housing-related indicators come in far below expectations.

A break above the milestone will likely trigger a return test, while a break below the milestone will likely trigger a search for the direction of the recent low.

override condition

Assumptions are likely to be broken if the price continues to move clearly below the near-term price milestone and the return remains sluggish.

A case in which one-directional flow strengthens after an event in Europe or the U.S., resulting in price movements that deviate from the range.

Revise policy if short-term buybacks continue to be difficult to obtain.

risk event

European dignitary statement(s).

U.S. employment-related and housing-related indicators.

Eurozone inflation-related statistics to come the next day.

Position Management

Be conservative in size and be prepared for fluctuations before and after the event.

Prioritize small gains and make frequent adjustments within the expected range.

Losses are taken without hesitation on pre-determined conditions, such as falling below a milestone or a slowdown in return.

checklist

Is the tone of statements by European dignitaries biased?

Will U.S. employment and housing-related indicators strengthen dollar-driven volatility?

Is the range between the milestones continuing?

Market Summary

While growth indicators in the U.K. are sluggish and the Central Bank is cautious, the situation in the U.S. is still supportive of the dollar as the U.S. adjusts to the prospect of interest rate cuts.

The previous day, there were some occasions when the market tested the upward direction on the back of overseas flows, but the milestone could not be crossed, and the situation remains holding as buying at the pushpoint and the slow return are in close proximity to each other.

Today, the focus is likely to be on which way to exit the holding range as the adjustment ahead of the event is likely to continue.

Assumed range

A lower range is expected around 1.31 and an upper range is expected around 1.32.

In the short term, the direction of the market is limited due to a mixture of return selling and push-buying.

The composition of the market is likely to continue to attack and defend around the milestone.

tactics

The line of sight is based on range rotation, with small increments to check for reactions near the upper and lower nodes.

Buy after confirming the downside in the lower price range, and sell after confirming the slowdown in the upside range.

Avoid pulling too much into a position and operate mainly for short-term completion.

trigger

On the upside, watch for a clear break above the 1.32 level, where the trend is likely to change.

On the downside, we are aware that the adjustment is likely to deepen if the 1.31 break below takes hold.

Watch for a move in the direction of the dollar on U.S. indicators (prices, production, and investment in U.S. securities) in the New York time frame.

override condition

If the 1.32 level is broken vigorously and established in the upper range with a return, the assumed range view will recede.

Even if the break below 1.31 does not last surprisingly and the rebound is strong enough to form a lower support, the range-below scenario is temporarily invalid.

When liquidity is skewed by sudden headlines and price retention occurs outside the expected range.

risk event

U.S. price-related statistics.

U.S. production indicators and equipment utilization rates.

U.S. external securities flows.

Position Management

The size is more modest than usual, and the emphasis is on balance, not leaning too much to one side.

The interest rate will be set in stages just before the milestone, with an awareness of not aiming for too much growth.

Losses are mechanically executed when the market is clearly off the milestone based on the recent fluctuation range.

checklist

Confirmation that position adjustments are likely to intensify before the UK index

Understand the time of day when the dollar is likely to swing in the short term due to U.S. indicators

Determine if the price movement at the milestone is a continuation of the range

Market Summary

The market was also weighed down by uncertainty over monetary policy ahead of the Australian meeting and caution over U.S. interest rate trends, resulting in a heavy upside.

The Australian dollar's return was slow as global stock market weakness dampened risk appetite.

The previous day saw a gradual decline to lower lows, and a short-term rebound was limited

Today, we will see how the market reacts to the material and whether the test of lower prices will continue.

Assumed range

Assuming a lower limit around 0.6450 and an upper limit around 0.6550

In the short term, the price range is slightly narrowing and we are aware that we are waiting for materials

In situations where it is difficult to get a sense of direction, the composition of the market is such that excessive following of ups and downs should be avoided.

tactics

Our basic policy is to sell on the return, and we will take a cautious approach while confirming the heaviness of the upside.

Push-buying is considered to be suitable for short-term rotation, as the price range is easily limited

If the fluctuation is intensified by the material, do not force it to pull back, but wait to see the reaction before making a decision.

trigger

Any change in tone in the Australian minutes in Asian hours will provide a clue to direction.

A break above around 0.6500 is a guide to consider a standard correction for a return sale

A break below the 0.6450 area will be a point where the bearish bias is likely to strengthen

override condition

If stronger-than-expected Australian-related materials cause the price to hold steady at 0.6530.

If risk appetite improves due to lower U.S. interest rates and higher stock prices, and the Australian dollar is widely repurchased

If selling does not continue after testing lower prices and the rebound trend is clearly established

risk event

Content and Interpretation of the Australian Agenda

Market attitude and interest rate trends ahead of U.S. indexes

Changes in risk appetite due to stock market fluctuations

Position Management

Positioning is based on lighter than usual, with priority given to confirming post-material fluctuations.

Gains will be focused on short price ranges and early adjustments will be made near milestones

Losses are executed mechanically according to the criteria of the most recent return high or lower price break

checklist

Change in tone of Australian minutes

Direction of U.S. interest rates and stock prices

Confirmation of reaction around 0.6500 and around 0.6450

looking back

Tests of higher prices in Europe did not continue, but in New York, the trend was slightly higher than the previous day's highs due to interest rate trends

summary

The European hour was somewhat directionless, as the highs continued to be attacked and defended but failed to break above the highs.

In New York, the US interest rates were seen to be picking up, creating a favorable environment for dollar purchases.

As a result, there was a slight move above the previous day's high, and interest rate-linked price movements were the main focus of the day

Although there were temporary swings to the upside and downside, the flow itself was relatively straightforward and reactions to materials were calm.

Today's Price Movement

The first European session started with a test of the highs and continued to remain conscious of the upward direction.

After that, the upside was heavy amid a mix of buying and selling, and it did not lead to a clear breakthrough.

In the New York time, the dollar was bought on the back of the interest rate trend, and the upward movement was once again recognized.

The market was mainly higher throughout the day and closed slightly above the previous day's highs.

Background & Materials

Long-term U.S. interest rates picked up through New York hours, creating an environment conducive to dollar buying with interest rate differentials in mind.

European hours were difficult to get a sense of direction due to a lack of materials, and the market continued to swing back to higher levels.

Japanese side materials were limited, and the main driver was relatively the interest rate trend on the U.S. side.

The market as a whole did not show excessive risk appetite or aversion, and the mood remained calm.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The price has slightly extended to the upside after struggling at the highs, and the short-term room for push appears to be limited

One of the short-term lines will be near the highs in Europe, and whether or not the highs are breached will likely influence the next direction.

The short-term focus is on whether the return trend of the New York time will be maintained, and the volatility remained relatively calm.

Although there were ups and downs in the short legs, the direction itself continued to be easily linked to the interest rate trend.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium-term, the trend is toward higher prices, and the market is becoming more aware of the attack and defense of the milestone area.

The major trend will be maintained despite some adjustments, and buyers will continue to be able to buy at the pushpoints.

The high price area has been stagnant for a long time, and the level that is considered as a support band is gradually being cut off

The trend of interest rates will continue to be sensitive to interest rate movements in the medium term, and confirmation of the external environment will be essential in determining direction.

impression

The daily price movements were a straightforward reaction to the return of interest rates, and the market had a clear material bias.

Temporary ups and downs were seen, but did not lead to excessive risk-taking, leaving the impression of calm.

Despite a certain amount of pushback, the reaction around the milestone was stable and market participants were moderately cautious.

Overall, it was an easy day to react to interest rate-related indicators and statements with a reasonable transition

trade observations

The market was easy to follow the trend of interest rates in New York, while confirming the heaviness of the upward trend in Europe.

It was more appropriate to deal with the situation in small increments, checking for reactions at the highs rather than overly deciding on a direction.

It was necessary to note that the shallow pushing ground continued and the scope for short-term adjustment was likely to be limited.

I have the impression that it was possible to respond with less risk by carefully following the reactions near the milestones.

checklist

Reconfirm intraday changes in interest rate trends

Carefully observe the reaction near the milestone.

Maintain a standing position that is not overly biased toward a sense of direction.

looking back

In the European time, the improvement in the economic outlook was supported, but the upside was heavy, and by the end of the New York time, selling became dominant, and the previous day's lower price was broken.

summary

In Europe, the upward breakout was limited as sellers were waiting for a return, and the market moved slightly higher and lower within the range.

In New York, euro buying momentum was sluggish as interest rate trends strengthened slightly, limiting the return phase

Overall, there was little sense of direction, and the market continued to be aware of the short-term upward pressure.

Today's Price Movement

Asian time continued the previous day's trend, with small movements between major levels

After entering Europe, the market tested the lows and remained in a range, but failed to break out of the upper range even during the return phase.

In New York, interest rates were perceived to be picking up, leading to a move below the previous day's low amid restrained returns.

Background & Materials

Improved growth prospects in the eurozone helped avoid excessive euro selling

Although U.S. indicators showed some weakness, market reaction was limited, and overall, there were few clues as to the direction of the market.

A day of interest rate trends and risk posture to influence the market as monetary authorities are expected to speak

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, while avoiding a break below the main support zone, the return was weak and awareness of the lower end of the range remained

Short-term moving averages were flat, indicating a close balance between buying and selling

Reaction was sluggish in the upper resistance zone, and the market continued to be susceptible to a lack of short-term strength.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the situation continues to remain in a holding pattern, and it remains difficult to determine the direction of the market.

Failure to clearly exceed key return levels made it easier to maintain a wait-and-see stance overall.

A certain amount of buying back was seen at lower prices, but the formation of a clear trend remained elusive

impression

Materials were sporadic and judgmental, and the impression was that the market remained cautious, especially with regard to interest rate trends.

Even with European support, the return was limited, and the day was marked by a lack of direction in the market as a whole.

trade observations

In the short term, it was felt that a cautious response was needed due to lack of momentum in the return phase and weak reaction in the upper resistance zone

A certain degree of buyback strength was seen even when the market tested lower prices, giving the impression that fine price movements continued within the range.

checklist

Check the status of maintenance of the main support zone

Watch for interest rate trends and related market reactions

Confirming the positioning of European indicators and officials' statements

looking back

The European session saw a test to the downside, but the upside was heavy, and the NY session remained directionless as the market awaited for more information.

summary

The caution remained amidst the UK's upcoming price-related indicators, and the financial uncertainties were also a major factor in the cautious trading.

Buying was also seen during the return test, but the momentum did not continue, and the move did not lead to a move over the milestone.

In New York, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed in the range due to a strong lack of clues.

Today's Price Movement

The downward pressure was preceded by a downward push in the early European session, followed by a gradual recovery, but the upward pressure continued to be restrained.

Selling prevailed near the milestone, and the price range remained limited.

No directional movement was seen in the New York time, and the price remained calm with a small bias in the trading volume.

Background & Materials

The UK's price developments attracted attention and were considered an important confirmation of the outlook for the next round of monetary policy.

The persistently cautious stance on domestic fiscal management contributed to the pound's limited appreciation in the currency markets.

On the U.S. side, there was a lack of major cues, and calm, supply-and-demand-driven trading continued.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Heavy reaction near the milestone, and a form of easy return selling was noted.

Short timeframe continues to be directionless, with little bias to either up or down

The market continued to attack and defend around the base line, and many believed that material was needed for a clear breakthrough.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Continued to restrain highs and remain conscious of a slow return

Buybacks are also confirmed at mid-term milestones, but the dominance has not yet reached a point where it is biased in one direction or the other

The market remained within a wide range, and additional material was seen as necessary to form a sense of direction.

impression

Lack of positive cues in both Europe and New York, and an overall cautious attitude was evident

The environment continues to be one in which indicators and key figures are not expected to speak, and trading seems to be calm except for brief swings

Participants remained in a wait-and-see attitude as their attention shifted to the next material

trade observations

Short-term returns were sluggishly extended, requiring cautious trading after confirming reactions.

There was room to pick up minor reversals within the range, but the environment was difficult to follow forcibly.

The operation was suitable based on the narrow price range without taking excessive risks

checklist

Reaction to milestones

Direction of Price Indices

Liquidity situation in Europe and U.S. time

looking back

A day in which the market was temporarily pushed lower during the Tokyo time, but was held at lower levels by push-buying

summary

Australian wage data was in line with expectations and lacked new direction, weakening in the early going, continuing the previous day's trend

Buy-backs are coming in amid the growing attitude to assess the trend of U.S. interest rates, and the downside is limited without leading to excessive selling.

In New York, the market was calm, with some buyers pushing the U.S. long-term interest rate while being aware of a pickup in the U.S. interest rate.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time pushed lower to test the previous day's low area, but after a round of selling, buying gradually prevailed

European hours lacked positive direction, but remained firm as the market awaits U.S. indices

In New York, the dollar was bought on the back of a pickup in U.S. interest rates, but the AUD also picked up the push to consolidate lower prices.

Background & Materials

Australian Wage Index came in as expected, with limited market reaction and a lack of material for the Australian dollar.

Global stock price trends and risk attitudes have failed to stabilize, and the upside is heavy due to its position as a commodity currency.

The impact of the U.S. interest rate adjustment remained strong, with movements in interest rates and the dollar influencing the market's direction.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market continues to attack and defend around the previous day's low, with a certain amount of buying demand confirmed at the push point.

The market continues to hover around the moving average line, and although the sense of direction is somewhat lacking, a move to confirm lower prices prevails.

Momentum was limited due to the awareness of an upper resistance zone in the short-term return phase.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Medium-term trend remains near the lower end of the range, and the market remains cautious

The position of the moving average line showed a slow return, and the market continued to lack direction.

Lack of materials to judge the medium-term trend, and the market is now in the process of assessing changes in the external environment.

impression

Australian indices were in line with expectations and lacked material for judging strength and weakness, giving the impression that price movements were within a calm range.

On the other hand, there was also buying at lower prices, and it was felt that this was a characteristic of not being a one-sided seller.

With continued awareness of fluctuations in interest rates and stock prices, the market is likely to focus on reactions to external materials.

trade observations

Buying back from the downside near the previous day's lows was confirmed, and there were occasions when short-term contrarian moves were more likely to work

On the other hand, the upside remained heavy and it was difficult to follow the return, requiring cautious entry.

Limited price range management was felt to be effective in a lack of direction.

checklist

Check for changes in market liquidity and interest rate trends

Reexamine the impact of Australian indices and risk posture

Continue to check for reactions near the lower end of the range