Market Summary

The market continues to test the upside against the backdrop of a pickup in U.S. long-term interest rates and is conscious of remaining in a high price range.

Today, the focus is on reactions to interest rate trends ahead of the release of U.S. housing-related indicators and the minutes of the U.S. House of Representatives meeting.

In Tokyo time, it is difficult to get a sense of direction and the market is still waiting for external materials.

As a whole, the market is prone to price fluctuations near milestones, and the market is prone to swinging either up or down.

Assumed range

The lower price is assumed to be at a level where a push to the milestone area will be conscious.

The upper price is targeted to return to the vicinity of the recent high.

We need to keep in mind the short-term spread before and after the event.

Liquidity tends to change depending on the time of day, and following the market is a situation in which careful judgment should be exercised.

tactics

Our basic policy is to be prepared to buy at the push of the button.

During times of large short-term swings, a policy of suppressing new directions and making adjustments after confirmation is effective.

It is important to be flexible in buying more or withdrawing from the market near the milestone, while monitoring the reaction.

It is preferable to avoid excessive following of events and wait for price movements to stabilize.

trigger

The upside will be determined by a clear breakout above the milestone.

To the downside, the focus will be on whether the recent push level will be broken.

If the U.S. housing-related indicators or the minutes of the meeting move interest rates, we will need to keep a close eye on the initial direction.

Flow factors are strong in Tokyo hours, and reevaluation in European and U.S. hours is key.

override condition

In the case of a push-buy assumption, a clear break below recent support is a condition for a tactical review.

A limited reaction after the event and continued stalling around the milestone may also be a factor in the assumed negatives.

A review of judgment is also necessary when a short-term trend is rapidly unwinding volume.

A biased move in one direction during periods of low liquidity also calls for careful reevaluation.

risk event

U.S. housing-related indicators (starts and permits)

U.S. monetary policy-related minutes released

Sudden changes in stock indices and interest rates

Position Management

It is appropriate to be more conservative in size than usual and to be prepared to prioritize adjustments before the event.

It is effective to take profits just before the milestone and not to force the market to pull back.

The situation is such that it is preferable to take a thorough mechanical response based on the most recent support breakdown for a loss.

When multiple positions are held, it is effective to control risk by splitting the positions.

checklist

Check interest rate reaction to U.S. housing-related indicators and minutes

Understand the trading flow and price stability at milestones

Watch for reassessment of direction in European and U.S. time.

Market Summary

The previous day, the rise in U.S. long-term interest rates weighed on the Eurodollar and the slow return of the dollar.

Continued speculation over U.S. monetary policy and caution about future indicators in Europe, and the ground is susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates and stock prices

Today's phase is to carefully assess whether the trend will continue in the direction of the lows extended the previous day.

Assumed range

Lower price range from the previous day's low to the recent push zone

Image of the upside is likely to be heavy around the recent return high and psychological milestone.

Basically, the main scenario is a swing within the previous day's price range, while considering the risk of temporary expansion during events

tactics

Basic stance is based on range rotation, with priority given to the idea of a return to the market on the upside.

On the downside, carefully consider the push to the downside where the downside is signalled in the short term.

trigger

Check for price movements around the start of the European hour and any change in the attack and defense around the previous day's lows.

Conscious of short-term directional triggers when interest rates and stock prices move significantly in the same direction around U.S. indices and key figures' statements

If the Asian session is limited and the market enters Europe with limited returns, we should pay some attention to downward pressure in the European session.

override condition

If the market breaks above the previous day's high and remains in the high zone, the return-sell-dominant scenario will be temporarily shelved.

A rapid turnaround after falling well below the previous day's low and closing at a higher level also requires a reassessment of the outlook

A situation where you want to return to a flat orientation once a directional trend with volume is seen outside the assumed range for an extended period of time.

risk event

Sudden changes in interest rates in response to statements about U.S. monetary policy and the results of related indicators

Surprises in economic and inflation-related indicators in the euro area change the outlook for the euro area

Fluctuations in risk appetite through large swings in equity markets and commodity prices

Position Management

Overall position size is slightly smaller than usual, and new entries before and after the event are carefully considered

Take profits in stages at milestones within the expected range, and even when aiming for growth, keep only a portion of it.

Losses are based on the previous day's highs and lows and recent milestones, with an awareness of a mechanical approach to execution once unexpected price movements are confirmed.

checklist

Is the direction of U.S. long-term interest rates and major stock indexes consistent?

Is there a large gap between the results of the European bloc indicators and the Eurodollar reaction?

Whether the position of the previous day's high/low and today's price range is consistent with the pre-assumed range view

Market Summary

The overall wait-and-see tone continues for the pound-dollar amid continued speculation on the future of U.K. price indexes and fiscal policy

The previous day, the market oscillated up and down, but remained within a range and showed no clear sense of direction.

Today's price movements are expected to be dominated by short-term forces as they await the next major event.

Assumed range

Today's main scenario is a range from around 1.30 to 1.33.

To the downside, the price is likely to be pushed down before 1.30, and to the upside, the price is likely to be pushed back up around 1.33.

If there are no major surprises, we would like to follow the price movements based on the assumption that the price will swing within this range.

tactics

Our basic policy is to be aware of range rotation and not to chase extreme breakouts.

Prepare entry patterns for each scenario, separating buying on the downside and selling on the upside.

Before and after the event, it is important to carefully select new entries in anticipation of temporary spread widening and turbulence.

trigger

To the upside, a clear test of the 1.33 level from the European time onward will be a guideline for a short-term rebound scenario

To the downside, a strong trend below 1.30 in London time is a candidate for a sign of a break below the range.

We will also pay attention to the headlines surrounding the UK price index and fiscal comments US monetary policy stance

override condition

If the price closes firmly at the 1.33 level and begins to function as a push, we will revise our scenario based on the assumption of a return to the 1.33 level.

Conversely, if the price clearly breaks below 1.30 and the downward trend accelerates, we will reduce the range assumption tactic

Refrain from trading unreasonably, as rapid round-trip changes in a short period of time can also reduce the reliability of the technicals.

risk event

Announcements on U.K. price-related indicators and fiscal policy, as well as statements by key figures, are likely to influence the direction of the pound.

In the U.S., we note that statements on monetary policy stance and related indicators are likely to spill over to the crosses through the dollar's interest rate observations

Watch for temporary range breaks and increased volatility if results differ significantly from expectations or surprise elements

Position Management

Before and after the event, position sizes will be smaller than usual to allow more room to withstand unexpected price fluctuations.

It is safe to set a profit target a little before the upper end of the range and not to be too greedy when entering near the lower end of the range as well.

Stop-loss levels are placed outside of the trigger price range to avoid overtrading on successive headlines

checklist

Have you checked the UK price index and fiscal timetable and the availability of key figures' statements?

Are you aware of indicators and scheduled statements that could affect the stance of U.S. monetary policy, and are you taking note of key time frames?

Did you check the quality and volume of price movements in the 1.30 and 1.33 area to sort out clues as to whether the range will continue or break out?

Market Summary

While Australian wages and price-related issues have shown resilience, the combination of a strong dollar and stock market instability has led to a lack of direction

The previous day, while gradually lowering the lows, the lower price was maintained, and then the predominant trend was to pick up the pushback.

Today, the focus is on whether there will be another test of lower prices, and it is easy to be aware of the slow reaction in the return phase.

Assumed range

Small ups and downs around the range of late 0.64 to early 0.65

A scene to try to recover to the 0.65 level if the external environment settles down.

Pressure toward mid-0.64s if risk-off strengthens

tactics

Flexible response to short-term swings while keeping the range rotation as the basic axis

Cautious stance to pick up pushes if downward test strengthens

Consider the option of returning to the market when the upside reaction is slow.

trigger

Upward movement clearly above the 0.65 level

The downside is below the mid 0.64s.

Time of day when U.S. indicators and interest rate-related reactions are stronger.

override condition

Stable above mid 0.65s

Price moves rapidly collapsing to the low 0.64s.

Unexpected unidirectional change due to sudden change in external risk

risk event

Publication of U.S. interest rate-related indicators

Australian Business Confidence and Leading Index

Swings in risk sentiment linked to changes in stock prices

Position Management

Size is adjusted less than usual

Gains are based near the upper end of the recent range.

The stop loss is at the point where the downward milestone is clearly broken.

checklist

Will the dollar be unbalanced in reaction to U.S. indicators?

Is the tone of Australia-related indicators maintained?

Are movements in stock prices and risk assets spilling over into the Australian dollar?

looking back

The lack of a clear check from the authorities and a retreat from interventionist speculation led to a day of overseas-led upward testing, with the yen selling gaining the upper hand.

summary

Tokyo time was lacking in a sense of direction due to a lack of materials, but from Europe onward, dollar buying prevailed and the flow of the dollar strengthened.

The retreat from interventionist fears in the wake of the authorities' comments had an impact on market sentiment, creating an environment conducive to selling the yen, which was impressive.

Shallow push to the upside maintained in New York, and short-term supply and demand supported the dollar for the day

The overall impression was that uncertainty related to monetary and exchange rate policies had receded somewhat, and the market was more prone to straightforward flows.

Today's Price Movement

The Tokyo session was mainly characterized by a narrow firings, and the impression was that cautious price movements continued while confirming intervention-related speculations.

After entering Europe, buyers took the lead, and the bias to the upside was strengthened by the addition of overseas flows.

In New York, the push was limited and buying was likely to continue intermittently, following the previous day's trend.

Throughout the day, the test toward the highs continued, and the market moved slowly higher while also managing to return to the highs.

Background & Materials

No concrete restraint was shown after the meeting between the BOJ governor and finance officials, and caution about intervention faded, which was perceived as a factor selling off the yen.

Relative interest rate differentials are in focus due to lack of clues from domestic indicators and largely unchanged views on the current stance in terms of monetary policy

On the U.S. side, interest rate expectations are likely to waver ahead of the major indexes, and the wait-and-see attitude is one reason why the dollar is likely to be pushed back.

Overall, the impression is that policy-related uncertainties have receded somewhat, and the day was one of easy flow-driven movements.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

Short-term test to the highs continues, with shallow pushes suggesting buy-dominant ground

On the other hand, there is a sense of overheating in short-term indicators, and we want to be prepared for a downside swing in the event of a sudden reversal.

A situation where we need to check reactions at shallow pushes and near milestones and carefully decide whether to follow or not.

In the short term, if there is a slowdown in the growth of the upside, we are aware that there is room for a temporary adjustment.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The upward bias is maintained in the medium term, and the push is likely to serve as support.

However, depending on the stance of the authorities and the external environment, it is likely that the battle over the milestone will intensify and that there will be times when it will be difficult to get a sense of direction.

The market has remained at a high level for an extended period of time, and we need to see if the trend continues or if the adjustment intensifies.

Multiple moving averages are considered as support, and unless there are any unexpected events, the trend will remain gradual.

impression

A day that clearly showed the change in market sentiment due to statements by authorities, and the impression is that the receding sense of caution boosted flows.

In the short term, there is a sense of overheating, so a flexible viewpoint is required to avoid bias in one direction.

As policy-related views have calmed down, it is felt that reactions to the next material are likely to be larger.

trade observations

The impression is to carefully pick up pushes and shallow returns at higher prices, while reacting quickly to changes in the flow

In the short term, it is felt that it is more advantageous to take profits in small increments, and it is desirable to respond by not pulling too much on the holdings.

Although the medium-term trend is maintained, position size adjustment is important as it is prone to fluctuations depending on materials.

The phase in which we want to maintain an attitude of following the market near the milestone without overreacting and entering the market after confirming the reaction.

checklist

Are there any changes in the authorities' statements and policy-related headlines?

Is there any bias in price movements during the hours when overseas flows are likely to occur?

Have you reconfirmed risk management to ensure that short-term overheating is not increasing?

looking back

Uncertainty in the Eurozone weighed on the dollar, and while it remained firmer from Tokyo to Europe, there was a noticeable trend of dollar buying in New York.

summary

The euro remained susceptible to upward pressure due to uncertainty over business confidence and interest rate observations

Despite the cautious attitude in the U.S. ahead of the index, elements of resilience supported dollar preference.

Overall, the market was more inclined to lean toward the dollar while assessing the reaction to the materials.

Today's Price Movement

Direction was difficult to grasp in Tokyo and Europe, and the market was mainly moving back and forth in limited price ranges.

In New York, market participants were more responsive to the material and the dollar buying momentum increased

Euro's return limited despite mixed trading around the milestone

Background & Materials

Cautiousness of Eurozone business confidence indicators and interest rate outlook made it difficult to extend the buyback.

In the U.S., the wait-and-see attitude ahead of the event continued, but firming materials supported the dollar.

Overall, the situation was such that differences in temperature between the U.S. and Europe tended to influence preferences among currencies.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The structure was conscious of a slow return in the short term and a tendency to sell off to the upside.

Buying back was easy at the lower price mark, and the narrow range of the market continued to be attacked and defended

Although there was little sense of direction, it was characterized by the fact that the flow tended to tilt in the New York time zone.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the gradual downward bias continued and the return phase lacked strength

The trend remained difficult to judge the sustainability of the trend, as the number of attacks and defenses between the milestone points increased.

Pressure remained susceptible to change depending on interest rate observations in the U.S. and Europe

impression

Lack of material for the euro called for cautious handling of the return phase

The market was sensitive to U.S. and European indices, and there was an air of tolerance for short-term swings.

While generally not easily biased in one direction, a dollar-dominant trend was seen.

trade observations

The struggle continued for a long time, and the content was more about confirming a return or rebound than following.

I have the impression that the flow of the NY time was changeable and that switching strategies by time zone was effective.

It was necessary to carefully assess the reaction near the milestone.

checklist

Changes in business confidence and interest rate observations in the U.S. and Europe

Strong and weak reactions to materials in NY time

Which is the predominant return phase and which is the predominant push phase?

looking back

Selling intensified during European hours, and by New York time, the dollar was in a strong buying trend, falling below a certain range that had been perceived as a holding pattern.

summary

A slowdown in price indicators on the U.K. side increased speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts and restrained the pound's upward movement.

On the U.S. side, interest rate observations continued to swing ahead of key indicators, and the dollar buying trend was likely to prevail.

As a result, the market fell below the level that had been seen as a holding pattern, and a change in the short-term trend occurred on the day.

Today's Price Movement

The pound was easily sold from the beginning of the European session, and downward pressure prevailed with limited return.

The dollar accelerated its buying power during the New York session, and the price fell below the level that had been considered as a milestone.

The day was generally biased to the downside, although there were some ups and downs.

Background & Materials

The pound was weighed down by a slowdown in U.K. price indicators and increased speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts

On the U.S. side, interest rate observations were volatile ahead of major indexes, and demand for the dollar was likely to rise.

Overall, the day was marked by fluctuating views on monetary policy in the U.K. and the U.S., which affected rates.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The return was held back, and the short-term bias was now downward as the market fell below the most recent support band.

Weak resilience near moving averages limited short-term buybacks

The chart structure continued to be dominated by selling on the return in the short term

Technical Memo (mid-term)

The lower limit of the range, which had been viewed as a holding pattern in the medium term, was breached, and a change in the trend was noticed.

Multiple return points overlapped at the top, and the structure continued to require time for a turn to the upside

The market remained below its medium-term moving average, requiring a cautious stance.

impression

The materials and the charts were all pointing in the same direction, giving the impression that it was a day of heavy selling.

There was consistency in the flow, especially from European to New York hours, with limited up and down rebound

As the short-term trend had switched, it was a situation where the strength of future returns should be carefully monitored.

trade observations

The slow return around the milestone was easy to confirm, and the transition was easy to meet short-term selling conditions.

The size adjustment was felt to be effective, as the movement was temporarily coarse at times before and after the index.

While following after a downward breakout required caution, participation after confirming a return was relatively easy to handle.

checklist

How interest rate observations in the U.K. and U.S. have changed during the day

Strength or weakness of resilience after a break below the lower limit of the cross-holdings

Have we seen consistency in the flow from Europe to New York?

looking back

On the previous day, the Australian dollar was pushed lower as dollar buying prevailed in New York amid a lack of direction in Tokyo and Europe.

summary

The market maintained a cautious stance as it continued to wait for materials amid the focus on Australian wage-related indicators.

Strong caution ahead of the event in the U.S. and dollar preference flows weighed on the Australian dollar

Reactions to the resource market and China-related developments were also limited, and it was difficult to see a widespread move to test the recovery.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo and Europe remained in a state of struggle, and it was difficult to get a sense of direction amid a lack of materials.

In the New York time, the US dollar was bid higher and the Australian dollar came under increasing downward pressure.

The return phase was held back early, and the day was marked by a low

Background & Materials

Australian wage-related indicators were in the spotlight as the market became more aware of the need to determine the sustainability of inflation

With major events in the U.S. on the horizon, there was a general sense of risk aversion in the market.

News on resource market conditions and China-related news received only limited reaction, and were unlikely to provide material for a positive rebound in the Australian dollar

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the shape of the chart is easily aware of a return sale, and the heaviness of the upside is evident in the chart.

The short-term moving averages remained downward, and the slow reaction in the return phase was impressive

In the short term, the environment is marked by stagnation at the lows, making it difficult for a rebound to continue

Technical Memo (mid-term)

Although it is difficult to get a sense of direction in the medium term, there have been intermittent moves to explore lower prices

While buying support is confirmed at major milestones, the shape of the market is also easily aware of an upper price barrier.

The market continued to move on the lower side of the medium-term holding range, and the price movement was uneven.

impression

With the overall trend toward dollar dominance continuing, the Australian dollar seemed unlikely to test an autonomous return.

Australia- and China-related materials have had limited impact, and the environment remains susceptible to external risks in the short term

The situation calls for continued careful confirmation of reactions to the return phase.

trade observations

In the short term, there was a strong awareness of the need to return to the market, and there were many occasions when the momentum of the return was slow.

There were times when the flow before and after the event moved the market, and I had the impression that we did not want to make any early decisions on the direction of the market.

It was a day when we felt it was safer to check the reaction at the milestone and consider entry instead of forcibly chasing it.

checklist

Results and market reaction to Australia-U.S. related indicators

Resource Market and China Related News

Confirmation of price movement in the short-term return phase