Market Summary

On the previous day, the authorities' intervention alert eased somewhat, and the move to test the upside prevailed, and the situation continued to remain in a high price range.

U.S. interest rates are likely to be volatile ahead of major indexes, and the dollar is likely to be pushed higher while profit-taking is also likely to occur at higher levels.

Environment in Japan is divided in its assessment of prices and economic indicators, and the Bank of Japan's stance has not changed significantly, making it easy to be aware of relative interest rate differentials.

Today, we will see if the price movement settles at higher levels while continuing the previous day's strong trend.

Assumed range

The lower price is expected to be resigned to the downside from the level that is seen as a candidate for a push, while awaiting for clues, and we would like to avoid a rush to the bottom.

The upside is likely to be aware of the previous day's highs and milestones, and if the momentum of the return slackens, the market may be sluggish and may be subject to adjustment.

Basically, we expect profit-taking at the upper end of the range, and a push to test the lower end of the range, but we are also aware of room for range expansion depending on the event.

In the short term, we are watching price movements in Asia and reactions after entering Europe to see where the center of the day's range will be formed.

tactics

The current combination of fundamentals and charts suggests a flexible response based on the image of buying on the downside and selling on the upside in the short term.

If a shallow push is made in Tokyo time, we should consider buying down in stages while avoiding excessive contrarianism, and in the case of a deep push, we should reconfirm the time frame and materials.

The situation is such that we would like to prioritize the image of testing the upside with smaller lots after confirming the momentum and volume of the breakout based on the risk of stalling at the highs.

Overall, the market should not be biased in one direction, but rather be aware of the short-term game, adjusting position sizes and holding times in preparation for sudden changes around events.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above the previous day's highs and easily recognized milestones and the ability to maintain these levels will be a key factor in determining whether to follow the market.

The downside is likely to be a signal for an adjustment once a clear move below the previous day's low area or the zone of potential pushes is made.

As for time frames, flows in early London and price movements before and after the U.S. index in New York are important for determining whether or not a trend is in place.

Scenarios where we should watch out for temporary spread widening and wild swings when economic indicators and key figures' statements, which tend to affect U.S. interest rates, deviate significantly from expectations.

override condition

The upside scenario requires a review if a break above the highs becomes deceptive and the market is pushed back to the middle of the range in a short period of time.

In terms of the downside, if it is confirmed that the market rebounded quickly after a temporary break and acted as a push toward the end of the day, the scenario of an entry into adjustment may weaken

When sudden price movements occur during periods of low volume, it is easy to lose confidence in technical signals, and it is advisable to check subsequent price movements before making a decision.

Note that if the trend continues to move clearly outside the assumed range and trend reversal is confirmed on multiple time frames, the original assumptions themselves will need to be updated.

risk event

If the results of indicators directly related to interest rate observations, such as U.S. employment and inflation-related indicators, deviate significantly from expectations, the direction may change in a short period of time

In the event of a BOJ-related statement or a sudden news report related to monetary policy, the yen side is likely to take the lead, making it difficult to respond to the situation based on technicals alone.

Be aware of sharp fluctuations with unbalanced positions when there are articles of observation regarding verbal intervention or actual operations by the foreign exchange authorities

We need to keep an eye on the possibility that a sudden change in risk appetite, such as geopolitical factors or a sudden change in the stock market, could upset the balance between dollar and yen demand.

Position Management

Entry size should be kept a little smaller than usual, and investors should be aware that they should not rush to take additional positions before and after the event or in high price areas, but should be cautious and diversified.

The basic approach is to close positions in installments before the milestone, and to limit risk by gradually raising the stops on positions with unrealized profits.

Market Summary

Euro selling prevailed the day before, and the market continues to lack direction amid uncertainty about interest rates and business confidence in the U.S. and Europe

Today's events are likely to cause price swings, and short-term pullbacks and pushes are likely to be mixed.

Buybacks are likely to be involved near the milestone, and this is a situation where the sustainability of the flow needs to be carefully checked.

Assumed range

The lower price is expected to be in the vicinity of the previous day's low, while the higher price is expected to be around the guideline level for a return to the market.

Room for range expansion ahead of U.S. indices, and likely to swing up or down depending on materials

A stance of not being overly biased and estimating a wide range of fluctuations is necessary.

tactics

Basis is to combine short-term push-buying near the milestone while focusing on selling on the return.

Avoid following one direction before and after the event, and prioritize participation after confirming reactions.

Do not follow sudden swings, and be aware of entry after pulling back.

trigger

The upside is a break above the recent return high to confirm a short-term flow change.

To the downside, watch for a break below the previous day's low for a possible stronger sell-off.

The outcome of the U.S. index and the immediate reaction to the announcement are likely to determine the day's direction.

override condition

If there is a series of legs that clearly exceeds the expected level, review the tactic.

Suspend directional evaluation if there is an increase in irregular price movements with long whiskers both up and down.

Lower confidence in signals when volume is thin and price movements are rough.

risk event

U.S. employment and business conditions-related indicators

PMI and price-related indicators in Europe

Dignitaries' statements and sudden geopolitical factors

Position Management

Size should be lighter than normal and prepared for sudden changes before and after the event.

Set interest rates short, and give priority to closing once a milestone is reached.

Stop-losses are placed outside of the most recent milestone to avoid excessive endurance.

checklist

Interest Rate Observations in the U.S. and Europe and the Positioning of Today's Indicators

Reaction after reaching the milestone and the strength of the buyback/sellback

Whether or not the return highs and lows are renewed and the persistence of the price movement

Market Summary

On the U.K. side, speculation about the timing of the rate cut continues, while on the U.S. side, interest rate expectations continue to swing easily ahead of the major indexes.

The previous day was dominated by selling, and the weak return was recognized near the milestone.

With today's event on the horizon, short-term swings are still likely to occur depending on the materials

Assumed range

The lower limit is expected to be around 1.30 and the upper limit around 1.32

Reactions tend to occur around the milestone, and it continues to be difficult to extend either up or down.

Sudden indicator results may result in a temporary unexpected spread

tactics

The basic assumption is to return to the market and carefully check the return to the milestone.

Buying is safe to be considered only for short-term pushes, while watching for reactions after the event passes.

In times of lack of direction, it is an option to wait and see.

trigger

To the upside, we will check for a break above the 1.32 area and determine the short-term trend depending on the reaction.

On the downside, the focus will be on whether the price movement will intensify toward the 1.30 break below

In terms of time frames, short-term volatility is likely to continue in the early part of the European period and around the U.S. index.

override condition

A clear break above the 1.32 area at the close would weaken the assumption of a return to the market

If there is a strong rebound around 1.30, the short-term downward bias should be reworked once

If there is a sudden change in direction after the indicator, the previous scenario will be reset.

risk event

Results of key U.S. indicators could shake up interest rate expectations

UK inflation-related and employment-related updates will influence speculation on the timing of rate cuts

Monetary policy-related statements can create sudden volatility

Position Management

Size will be kept more conservative than usual to allow for sudden changes before and after the event.

Gains will be divided at each short-term milestone and adjusted based on the assumption that the market is difficult to extend.

Losses are sorted out as soon as the milestone is clearly exceeded to limit the risk of a reversal.

checklist

The magnitude of the impact of UK and U.S. index results on interest rate observations

Strong and weak reactions around 1.30 and around 1.32

Changes in price movements before and after the event and the possibility of increased volatility

Market Summary

On the previous day, the Australian dollar continued to be in a heavy recovery trend amid speculation about U.S. monetary policy and risk aversion.

With today's release of related indicators, the U.S. dollar trend and market sentiment are likely to influence the direction of the market.

News related to the resource market and China also has a significant impact on the market, and the environment is prone to short-term fluctuations.

Overall, the market is likely to remain cautious.

Assumed range

Lower price level is aware of the previous day's low price area - price area prone to swing downward

Upper price level is likely to be a return point - Near the upper price is aware of the heaviness of the upper price.

Growth is expected to be limited due to the easy entry of real demand and indicator flows.

In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate up and down, but with little sense of direction

tactics

selling on the way back

Ready to consider entry at higher prices while carefully checking short-term returns

Market tends to be a wait-and-see market, so emphasis is placed on being prepared for sudden swings.

Do not chase up and down forcibly, but maintain the stance of aiming for a clear reaction when it occurs.

trigger

The upside is a clear breakthrough of the previous day's return high area

Downside is the flow immediately after the break of the low and the U.S. indexes.

U.S. dollar-driven fluctuations and resource price reactions are likely to trigger the market

We will watch for directional formation in the Asian-European early hours.

override condition

Price movement to settle above the previous day's return high

Clarification of the trend of predominant buying of the Australian dollar after the U.S. index

Resource market recovery to support the Australian dollar

Situation where a downward transition prevails in the short term

risk event

Announcement of U.S.-related indicators

Economic indicators related to Australia and China

Sudden changes in flows triggered by sentiment shifts in major markets

Sudden risk aversion due to geopolitical risks

Position Management

The size will be lighter than usual and additional adjustments will be refrained from before and after the release of the index.

Divide gains at short-term returns and milestones, and be conscious of responding without being greedy.

Losses are taken when the upper limit of return is clearly exceeded.

Thoroughly set up stop-losses in case of unforeseen swings

checklist

U.S. Dollar Trends and Reaction to U.S. Indicators

Australia-China Related News and Resource Market Fluctuations

Confirmation of price movement at the top of the short-term chart return

looking back

A day of buying in Tokyo, followed by a temporary sell-off in Europe, but then buying back in New York and closing higher.

summary

The market remained conscious of the US monetary policy and the composition of the market was supported by the interest rate differential.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan continued to take a cautious stance, and the supply-demand balance also made it easier for buyers to buy on the downside.

The previous day was characterized by a generally firm, although up and down swing, confirming the strength of the buyback.

As a result, the price remained at a high level, and the impression was that the trend was stable with limited sense of direction.

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo, buyers were in the lead, and the firmness of the lower price was recognized from the beginning of the session.

The characteristic feature of the event is that although selling was temporarily strong in Europe, the momentum did not last long and recovered quickly.

In New York, the indexes pushed the market down at times, but buying at lower levels limited the overall turbulence.

Calm price movement returned toward the end of the day, maintaining the high price range and closing the day.

Background & Materials

Continued cautious view on monetary policy in the U.S., and a retreat from the expectation of lower interest rates are factors supporting the dollar

In Japan, the BOJ's stance has not changed significantly while taking into account price trends, and there is a lack of positive material on the yen side

The day was marked by an awareness of the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, and overall, flows continued to be polarized.

Supply and demand also bought at the pushpoints, a trend that was seen to limit the spread of the downside.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the market continues to hold at high levels, with both heavy upside and firm downside.

A situation in which a quick return after the formation of a push confirms that the market is in a good position to absorb a short-term downward push.

Short time frame lacks a sense of direction, but the structure is likely to be aware of a lower price.

Sudden swings were seen, but the price returned to a calm trend toward the end of the day.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the high price range will continue to be maintained, and the major trend is to search for the upper limit of the holding area.

Lower prices have been supported multiple times, and the strength of the push is once again being recognized

While the market continues to test the upper resistance zone, momentum for an upward breakout is limited

In the medium term, the market will remain within a range and is in the process of determining its direction.

impression

The previous day, while there were ups and downs, the market generally remained calm and did not seem overly polarized.

Looking at the way buybacks are coming in, the supply-demand balance is stable and downside concerns are limited

On the other hand, the market is also aware of the heaviness of the upside, and the market is still in a phase where it wants to confirm the trend without rushing.

We need to be prepared to capture the flow of events from a slightly broader perspective, and not be at the mercy of short-term movements.

trade observations

Environment in which it is easy to buy during the push phase and easy to respond mainly to short-term rotation

On the other hand, there is also some slowness on the upside, and caution is needed in timing the follow-through.

There were some short-term situations that required quicker reactions, but overall, the response was within a reasonable range.

A trend to face while avoiding excessive position taking based on a lack of sense of direction.

checklist

Flow changes due to the impact of U.S. indices

Strong and weak selling pressure in European hours

Degree of continued holding at higher prices

looking back

The day was a day of mixed materials, with the market moving up and down and lacking substance on a daily basis.

summary

The lack of stability in views on U.S. monetary policy, combined with reports on business confidence in the Eurozone, made it difficult for the market to find a sense of direction.

In Tokyo, the selling was led by a sell-off, which did not continue despite a temporary buying spurt in Europe, and in New York, there was a buying spurt in response to the indexes.

Short-term flows were easily replaced, and the overall transition lacked strength.

Today's Price Movement

In the early stages of the session, the market was dominated by selling on the return, with buyers and sellers mixing and mingling around the milestone.

Although a temporary buying spurt was observed in European hours, the trend did not continue and the market was pushed back again.

In New York, the dollar weakened slightly in response to the index results and the euro was easily bought.

Background & Materials

Uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy continued, triggering market swings in reaction to interest rate trends

In the Eurozone, business confidence indicators and price-related information were in the spotlight, and a cautious attitude toward the economy was noted.

Flows easily changed from one indicator to another, and trading by short-term sources contributed to the amplitude of price movements.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The daily chart had a small substance, and in the short term, there was a mixture of sell-backs and buy-backs.

The price continued to move in a direction that was difficult to grasp, with rebound and pushback occurring alternately around the milestone.

Short-term indicators are not overheated and can easily swing up or down depending on the flow

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market is aware of moderate selling pressure and continues to be prone to selling at higher prices.

On the other hand, some buybacks have been made at lower prices, and the range-like movement is continuing.

It is difficult to get a clear direction because it is easy to fit into the central band of the holding pattern.

impression

It was a day when the overlap of materials was complicated and short-term trading tended to affect price movements.

Even when there were ups and downs, there was little continuity, and the impression was that the market remained in a state of flux throughout the period.

There were many milestone attacks and defenses, and the scene called for a wait-and-see attitude for a clear sense of direction.

trade observations

The short-term dominance of the trend was noticeable, and it was necessary to carefully assess the push and return reactions rather than follow them

Since it was difficult to find the direction of the market, the decision was made to avoid going too deep and to frequently close the market at a certain price range.

From a medium-term perspective, it was appropriate to carefully check the reactions of the major zones without forcibly chasing the swing.

checklist

Check market reaction to U.S. interest rate trends

Organize information related to Eurozone business confidence and prices

Identify signs of short-term flow bias or sudden fluctuations

looking back

In Europe, buyers were unable to extend the upward trend, while in New York, buyers were prevailed by the weakening of the dollar against the U.S. index, but the growth was limited.

summary

Throughout the day, the UK outlook remained cautious, making it difficult for aggressive buying to spread.

Although the U.S. indexes temporarily led to a buying advantage, the rally was restrained by continued sell-offs.

Price movements lacked a sense of direction, and there was a noticeable trend of testing up and down depending on the material.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was dominated by sellers looking for a return to the market, with a heavy sense of upward pressure.

In Europe, buy-backs were seen and the trend changed in the short term, but the momentum did not continue due to the UK indexes.

In New York, the dollar weakened slightly in response to the U.S. index, and the pound was bought predominantly.

Background & Materials

Continued awareness of slowing inflation in the U.K. has led to a cautious outlook for the direction of monetary policy

Economic indicators were also weak, weighing on uncertainty about the outlook for businesses and households.

The strength and weakness of the dollar fluctuated depending on the results of U.S. indicators, a development that affected the overall currency flows

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, upward price movements were easily suppressed, and pressure to return to the market continued to prevail.

Although there was a temporary buy-back, the high price area was prone to profit-taking and a tendency for the market to fall back.

Short-term trends are easily changed depending on materials, and there was a noticeable lack of continuity.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium-term, the direction of the market is difficult to determine, and the market continues to test ups and downs but fails to make a decisive breakthrough.

A range-like structure with a weakening upward momentum near the highs and a certain amount of buying demand seen at the lows

From a medium-term perspective, the market is still waiting for materials to accumulate, and it is difficult to create a clear advantage.

impression

I have the impression that it was a day of mixed material from the UK and the US, with flows easily broken

The market appeared to be near a market that is easily influenced by short-term movements and mainly adjusting its holdings

With the strength and weakness of the materials unclear, we felt the need to carefully assess price movements

trade observations

It was difficult to get a strong sense of direction, and I had the impression that there were many situations where I could not ride the short-term wave.

We struggled in an environment of mixed returns and buybacks, where dominance was easy to switch.

I think it was better to be aware of early gains without pulling too hard.

checklist

Changes in flow due to results of UK and US indicators

Which way the momentum of the return sale or the buyback leaned?

Flow bias at highs and lows

looking back

Tokyo and Europe lacked a sense of direction, with selling prevailing after temporary buying in New York in response to the index, and the trend closed below the previous day's low.

summary

Throughout the day, reactions to materials were large and short-term swings were noticeable.

In New York, the Australian dollar's return was limited as developments in the U.S. side weighed on the market.

The price remained at a low level through the close, and landed at a holding lower level

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo and Europe, the markets were mainly holding each other in small ups and downs, and it was difficult to generate a positive sense of direction.

In New York, the index results triggered buying of the Australian dollar, but it was not sustainable and the sell-off strengthened again.

In the second half of the day, the market continued to attack the previous day's lows, with much of the action taking place at the low end of the range.

Background & Materials

Business confidence-related indicators in Australia and the U.S. were in the spotlight, and the environment was prone to short-term swings before and after the announcements.

U.S. interest rate trends continued to limit the return of the Australian dollar, and the resilience of the dollar affected the market.

Mixed in with position adjustments ahead of the weekend, flows were easily skewed.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, the return phase was easily suppressed, and the upward pressure was perceived to be heavy.

The previous day's lows have been broken down, and the attack and defense near near near-term support continues

Weakness continued in relation to the short-term line, and there were many occasions when the rebound did not continue.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market remained close to the lower end of the range, a position that could easily lead to a sense of imbalance.

The difference in policy stance between Australia and the U.S. affected the medium-term direction of the market, which remained moderately heavy in the holding

The lower side of the main range was consolidating, and the flow seemed unstable at the daily level.

impression

It was a day of many situations with large material reactions, and the flow of the day was easily switched in a short period of time.

Buying opportunities for the Australian dollar were limited, giving the impression that developments on the U.S. side had a strong influence on the overall trend.

The market proceeded cautiously, with some holding back in situations where there was a lack of direction.

trade observations

The rebound phase is unlikely to last long, and the impression is that short-term discernment was required.

The strength of selling outweighed the strength of the low, a trend that required careful judgment to follow.

I feel that the structure was structured so that early profit-taking would pay off when aiming for a short-term return.

checklist

Swings before and after the release of an index and the persistence of the reaction

Impact of U.S. Interest Rate Trends on the Australian Dollar

Flow bias due to weekend factors