Market Summary

The previous day, while there was a push, liquidity was thin and the price range was limited.

With the month-end rebalancing coming up today, the ground is ripe for sudden flows to generate short-term swings.

Japanese price-related indicators and authorities' stance are restricting the upside, while the U.S. side has limited clues after the holiday break.

This is a phase where adjustment and wait-and-see action are likely to continue at high levels, and reactions to materials are likely to move the market.

Assumed range

Today, the ground is easy to test both up and down, and we expect a certain amount of swing even though it is difficult to spread out.

This is a situation where we want to confirm the depth of the downward push, while being aware of the level at which a push is likely to take place.

The upside remains a difficult zone to return to, and the focus is on how far the short-term flow will work.

Overall, we base the continuation of the high price range on the continuation of the high price range.

tactics

Today, we will be based on range rotation and will be cautious about swings during times of low liquidity.

If there is a push, there is room to take it in the short term, but avoid going deep.

Consider targeting a light adjustment in situations where the return is heavy, and focus on an early exit if the momentum is weak.

Priority is given to flexible standing in preparation for short changes of direction.

trigger

To the upside, we will check for a break above the high resistance zone and use the presence or absence of momentum as a decision point.

On the downside, the focus will be on whether or not the price will break below the zone where pushback is likely to occur.

Be aware that prices tend to slip slightly during times when month-end flows tend to be concentrated.

The direction of flows coming out after the reopening of the U.S. market is also likely to influence short-term decisions.

override condition

If the upper resistance zone is clearly breached and the push continues, the assumed range should be revised.

The scenario is negated once the push does not work on the downside and the weak price action continues.

Tactics must also be reconfigured in the event of a one-way run due to sudden flow.

If volatility declines sharply, we will consider the decision to suppress the entry itself.

risk event

Changes in the valuation of price-related indicators in Japan.

Sudden swings in the direction of the yen due to statements by Bank of Japan and government officials.

Large flows due to month-end rebalancing.

Sudden change in U.S. interest rates and concentration of flows after the holidays.

Position Management

The size shall be kept smaller than usual, and the structure shall have enough room to accommodate sudden swings.

The interest rate will be set shallowly and secured in stages, assuming the market is difficult to extend.

Losses are mechanically executed at points clearly outside the assumed range.

In the event of a reversal, do not force the market to persist, but focus on waiting for the next entry opportunity.

checklist

Time of occurrence and direction of month-end flows.

Reaction and momentum near the upper resistance zone.

Availability of buying support in the push zone.

Market Summary

Although there was a test of the highs on the previous day, liquidity was thin due to the start of a public holiday in Europe, and the market continued to lack a sense of direction.

With European price-related indicators and economic data due today, we are aware that month-end factors and short-term flows are likely to intersect.

The focus is on whether a test to higher prices will be made, taking into account the possibility of a temporary swing due to index results and rebalancing demand.

While the overall price movement is calm, we need to be careful of fluctuations accompanied by position adjustments by short-term forces.

Assumed range

Lower limit is near the 1.15 level

Upper limit is around 1.16

In the short term, we expect volatility to be restrained depending on liquidity in the European time zone, while still leaving room for a test of a return to higher prices.

Be aware that if the end-of-month flow is unbalanced, there is a tendency for up and down blurring.

tactics

Basic tactic is range rotation

We believe that it is effective to avoid excessive following while checking for reactions in high price areas, and to check for an immediate rebound in low price areas.

It is advisable not to force the market during times when there is little sense of direction, but to wait for a situation when liquidity returns.

If the month-end flow strengthens, it is necessary to manage not to get caught in a short period of swing

trigger

To the upside, will we see a clear move above the highs in the European time zone?

On the downside, the lower price was broken down in Asia - early Europe, and the return will continue to be slow.

Watch for short-term flow reactions when price indexes and economic data deviate from expectations

The timing of the return of participants in the major markets after the holidays is also a clue

override condition

When a clear sell-off occurs at a higher price and is pushed back

If buying support is weak at lower prices and the momentum of the return continues to be lackluster

If the end-of-month supply-demand bias becomes pronounced, making it difficult for short-term assumptions to function

When the flow is fixed in one direction triggered by an indicator

risk event

Price-related indicators in Europe

Economic Data for the Eurozone and Major Countries

Sudden flow due to month-end rebalancing

Position Management

Size is more conservative than usual and avoid entry during periods of low liquidity.

We will be aware of the recent reaction zone for gains and refrain from going too deep.

Losses are based on a clear exit from the range and avoid excessive persistence.

Leaves room for immediate response to any swing that is likely to be involved

checklist

Check price indexes and reactions to economic data

Is there any bias in month-end flow?

Are there any day-to-day changes in reactions at the high and low end of the range?

Market Summary

The previous day, there were some occasions when the market tested the direction of higher prices, but from European hours onward, participants were limited and the situation continued to lack a sense of direction.

Today is a day when month-end-specific flows are likely to be mixed, and we are aware of the possibility of somewhat more erratic price movements than usual.

Reactions to the U.S. interest rate discussion and the U.K. budget-related debate were also limited, giving the impression that the price range is still easily restrained.

Assumed range

Today, we expect a relatively narrow range around the previous day's highs and potential lower pushes.

We are prepared to keep in mind that the upside is likely to slow down near the milestone, while the downside is likely to be supported by the recent lows.

The situation warrants caution just in case of temporary swings to the upside or downside due to month-end flows.

tactics

The basic policy is centered on range rotation, with the assumption that any growth either up or down is difficult to read as sustainable.

Even if a test of higher prices resumes, we will follow cautiously, and if there is a selloff, we will consider a short-term sellback.

If a push is formed, avoid excessive lots and be conscious of keeping it short while checking the momentum of the return each time.

trigger

To the upside, a clear break above the previous day's highs is expected to be the short-term turning point.

On the downside, a break below the European lows is likely to be considered as a clue to a momentum shift.

As for the time frame, month-end flows are likely to be affected early in Europe and into New York, so be careful to reach the milestone.

override condition

If the upside test stalls without momentum and bounces back repeatedly before the milestone, the upside scenario will recede.

If the break to the downside does not proceed and the reaction at the push point is not strong, the view of the return selling advantage may be broken.

Note that if price movements are extremely thin despite month-end flows, it is difficult for the expected swing to function.

risk event

Irregular flows associated with headlines related to U.S. interest rate developments and month-end rebalancing.

Additional reports and statements related to the British budget.

Sudden increase or decrease in position adjustment due to weekend factors.

Position Management

The lot size will be kept lower than usual to prepare for sudden swings.

Secure gains early, even if they are small, and do not persist when the price moves are slow.

The policy is to place stop-losses at levels slightly above the milestone and to retreat promptly on unintended growth.

checklist

Are month-end flows affected?

Is there sustained momentum to test highs or break lows?

Are there any unbalanced liquidity changes in the European and New York hours?

Market Summary

In Australia, inflation indicators and capital investment are perceived to be resilient, and speculation over monetary policy is supporting the Australian dollar.

The dollar's recovery has been slow amid the smoldering speculation of a rate cut in the U.S., and overall, the market is perceived to be risk appetite-neutral.

Although there was a test of higher prices on the previous day, the market has been struggling with limited participants and a lack of sense of direction since Europe.

Assumed range

The expected range is 0.6480-0.6620, with a price movement in the upper 0.64s to lower 0.66s.

While assuming a temporary swing due to the end-of-month rebalancing, we would like to create a scenario based on the assumption that the market is likely to push at the lower end of the range and remain sluggish at the upper end of the range.

tactics

The basic stance is to buy at the push point, and if there is a downward push to the push zone formed during the previous day's adjustment phase, we will consider entering the market in stages.

On the other hand, we will avoid chasing higher prices at the upper end of the range, and will carefully select new positions, keeping in mind that short-term sell-back flows are likely to occur.

trigger

To the upside, the key point will be whether the price can firmly break above the previous day's highs from Asia to Europe, in which case, it will be easier to assume a shallow upward phase of the push

On the downside, we will reevaluate the short-term upside scenario once a clear break below the previous day's push zone is seen, to see if the test toward the lower end of the range is likely to intensify.

override condition

If the price closes well below the previous day's low and the return is limited, the assumption of a push-buy will be flattened and the risk of a break below the lower end of the range will need to be evaluated first.

In addition, we will consider a scenario correction when a sharp move in one direction triggered by a U.S. index is followed by a large reversal in the opposite direction as a sign of increased short-term reversal risk rather than trend-following.

risk event

Today is prone to intermittent flows associated with month-end rebalancing, and normal technical levels may temporarily become less functional

The U.S. dollar in general is likely to swing depending on U.S. consumer spending and inflation indicators and U.S. interest rates, and the Australian dollar should also pay attention to increased volatility caught up in this volatility against the U.S. dollar.

Position Management

Since it is difficult to read price movements due to the end of the month, new position sizes will be more conservative than usual, and the risk level will be kept at a level acceptable in the event of unexpected spikes.

We will not be greedy in taking profits, but will divide them up at each milestone in the range. We will also clarify the stop-loss level in advance and thoroughly manage orders before and after the release of an index.

checklist

Today's price movement and volume against the previous day's high and push zone

Direction of U.S. interest rates and stock markets and the overall reaction of the Australian dollar to them

Temporary spikes before and after major index releases and the strength of the subsequent pushback

looking back

The market oscillated up and down during the Tokyo session, and remained within a certain range in Europe and New York with little sense of direction.

summary

Despite intermittent U.S. interest rate-related headlines and statements from key figures, reactions were limited and the market as a whole remained cautious throughout the day.

In Japan, the stance of the foreign exchange authorities was noted, but it did not lead to positive clues, narrowing the list of materials that could influence short-term flows.

Multiple market participants chose to wait and see, making it difficult for the price range to widen and creating no sense of direction.

As a result, prices were calm, with a lot of back and forth around the major levels, and a range was observed throughout the day.

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo time, the price swung up and down between the milestone points, and the flow was limited despite a temporary widening of the price range.

Even in European hours, reactions to indicators and interest rate movements were small, and there was no significant movement away from the range from the previous day.

The direction of the market remained unchanged through the New York time, and the reaction to the material remained calm and the price maintained a certain range.

Overall, the market continued to remain within a range from a broad perspective, with brief swings in between.

Background & Materials

Although there were topics related to U.S. interest rates, their impact was limited and their effect on price movements was modest.

Key figures' statements and market views were sporadic, but not strong enough to influence the direction of the market, and a cautious attitude prevailed.

On the Japanese side, the stance of the foreign exchange authorities was the focus of attention, but it did not lead to positive material, and reactions were subdued.

No major fluctuations were seen in the external markets, and the wait-and-see tone of the overall exchange rate spread to the USDJPY as well.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

In the short term, there were many reactions near the milestone, and the trend of repeated small ups and downs was consciously observed.

Price movements tended to settle around moving averages and short-term momentum was limited

Volatility was suppressed and short-term support and resistance were recognized.

In the short term, it was easy for the range structure to continue with little sense of direction

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the major levels remained in consciousness, and the market continued to move within a wide range.

Trend indicators showed no significant changes and the overall structure remained calm

The position of highs and lows did not change significantly, and from a medium-term perspective, the market continued to wait and see.

Clues to the direction of the market were scarce and the market remained in a state of waiting for materials

impression

Reactions to materials were quiet, and the overall impression was that the market remained calm.

The USDJPY was also affected by the environment that made it difficult for several markets to take risks aggressively, and the USDJPY was also affected by such an environment, resulting in a mild transition

With important events coming up, position adjustments were easily noticed and reactions were limited.

trade observations

Despite short-term ups and downs, it was difficult to get a sense of direction, and I had the impression that there were many situations where entry decisions required caution.

While it was easy to confirm the reaction around the milestone, it was difficult to keep the momentum going and strategies to extend gains were difficult to implement.

Overall, the range assumption view was easy to work effectively and suitable for operations avoiding deep pursuit.

checklist

Reaffirm the short and medium term range structure

Compare key level responses to daily records

Organize so as not to overlook the phases of changing material reactions.

looking back

While the market remained heavy in Tokyo and Europe, it recovered in New York with buying.

summary

In the early stages of the session, the recovery was held back by concerns over the European economy and a cautious stance on the policy outlook, and selling continued to prevail for a period of time.

Thereafter, the market was characterized by a lack of direction and a tendency to swing up and down, due to the stance toward the U.S. index and the thin liquidity situation.

In the New York session, the market was inclined to buy back, and the recovery from the downside was progressing, absorbing the intraday weakness

Overall, the market seemed to have settled down with a predominance of buying at the end of the day, despite the intermingling of multiple materials.

Today's Price Movement

Tokyo time was marked by a return to the market, and it remained difficult to test the upside.

In the European time as well, selling was prevailing at times with a lack of sense of direction, and the market was pushed back slightly.

The market was easily bought into the New York time, and the downward pressure was absorbed by the recovery trend.

Throughout the day, the price was range-bound, with a mixture of waiting for a return and looking for a push.

Background & Materials

Weakness in consumption-related indicators in Europe was noted, and the prospect of sluggish economic growth led to a heavy upward pressure.

Despite speculation over the ECB's stance, it remained difficult to take a positive direction due to a lack of clues

On the U.S. side, the reaction was more scattered amid thin overall liquidity due to a cautious stance ahead of the release of the indexes.

Multiple external factors made it difficult to determine the direction of the market during the day.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

While there was a sense of selling on the upside in the short term, the market was range-bound at the lower end of the range.

Reactions were sporadic around the short-term line, and the trend continued to alternate between selling and buying.

The market continued to move slightly up and down, reflecting the market's desire to find the direction of the market.

In the short term, it was easy to maintain a balance between higher and lower prices.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the situation remained a mix of constant returns and pushes, and it was difficult to confirm a clear trend.

While the rebound of the past few days was noted, there were also some moments of cautiousness remaining on the upside.

Reaction was sluggish around the mid-term milestone, and there was a strong impression of a wait-for-materials attitude.

The trend remained more wait-and-see than directional, and a wait-and-see trend prevailed.

impression

During the day, the balance of selling and buying was shaky and unsettled due to a mix of materials.

There were many short-term ups and downs, and the market was influenced by actual demand and adjustment orders.

Although buying prevailed toward the end of the day, overall, the market still seems to be in a cautious mood.

There seems to be a market-wide attitude of waiting for the next clue

trade observations

The impression was that there were many situations in which it was difficult to fix the direction of the market due to a mixture of selling on the return and buying at the push point.

It was easy to get caught up in the short term "back and forth," and the timing of entry continued to be difficult.

Although there was a certain clarity in the buyback in the New York time, overall it was a day that required careful management

It felt like an environment where checking for movement was a priority rather than aggressively targeting

checklist

Is there any bias in the response during key time periods?

Are you overly assuming the cause and effect of materials and price movements?

Are you entering with unreasonable directional expectations?

looking back

In Tokyo and Europe, the market was dominated by selling, while in New York, the direction of the market was limited despite some buying.

summary

With the UK's fiscal-related topics and U.S. interest rate observations in mind, the market continued to search for reactions to the materials during the day.

Heavy return phase was seen in Tokyo and Europe, and caution remained in testing the upside

In New York, buyers returned to the market and made lower prices, but the market did not gain momentum beyond the milestone, and the overall price movement remained calm.

Today's Price Movement

In the early phase, the trend of the previous day was carried over and the return was sluggish, with Tokyo being aware of the heaviness of the upward trend.

In Europe, too, the market lacked a sense of direction, and price movements were mainly small amid a wait-and-see attitude toward materials.

In New York, the market was easily bought and there were some downside moves, but they were not enough to clearly break through the milestone.

Background & Materials

UK budget-related details remained in focus, with cautious views on fiscal management and growth prospects

While there were expectations of a rate cut in the U.S., the dollar's direction remained difficult to determine due to divergent assessments of the index results.

The market as a whole remained in a mood of waiting for events, with price movements centered on short-term flows.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

There were some short-term downside moments, and the ease of buying back into the market was recognized.

On the other hand, the upside was slow around the milestone, and upward growth was easily restrained.

While maintaining a short-term return trend, the direction remained unclear.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market remained in a range, and the flow of the market was likely to change depending on materials.

Although there was a sense of stability on the downside, there was a lack of material to aggressively test the upside.

A phase of renewed awareness of indicators and policy outlook in both the U.K. and the U.S. was seen as necessary to clarify the medium-term trend

impression

Price movements during the day were calm, and there were limited scenes of overreaction to materials.

The impression was strong that the market remained directionless, with a mixture of buybacks and sellbacks.

It was felt that the quiet transition was likely to continue until the next clear decision was made.

trade observations

Reactions were sluggish around the milestone, and there were many instances where cautiousness was required to aggressively follow the market.

The environment remained contrarian in the short term, with firm lower prices but limited upside growth.

It was easy to bias the flow at different times of the day, and it was easier to function in a wait-and-see attitude for the start of the movement.

checklist

Check the reaction near the milestone.

Organize Anglo-American Indicator Schedules

Pay attention to short-term flow bias

looking back

While Tokyo and Europe were mainly characterized by slight comings and goings, in New York, buying prevailed and the previous day's top price was slightly higher.

summary

Overall, there were many hours of lack of direction as the focus continued to be on Australian price-related issues.

In the second half of the day, the market was aware of the swing in interest rate observations on the U.S. side, and there were some easy moments to pick up a little of the push.

Although there has been little change in the major trends, the ground continues to be prone to detailed short-term supply and demand reactions.

Today's Price Movement

In Tokyo, clues were scarce and the market remained in a narrow range.

The same trend continued in European hours, with a strong wait-for-materials attitude.

Buying back was the predominant trend entering New York, confirming the slight upward movement of the previous day's highs.

Background & Materials

The outlook for monetary policy is being treated cautiously amid lingering caution about price developments in Australia.

In the U.S., uncertainty about the future direction of the U.S. dollar remained a bit difficult to determine.

Shifts in risk appetite and swings in commodity markets also affected the short-term price movements of the Australian dollar.

Technical Memo (Short-term)

The lower price continued to find a certain level of support, and the structure was conscious of the ease of buying at the push point.

Although the short-term return trend remains, the balance of the market remains vulnerable to a return to the upside.

The main focus was on confirming the sustainability of the short-term trend, with minor ups and downs.

Technical Memo (mid-term)

In the medium term, the market lacks clear direction and continues to be range-centric.

The highs and lows of the past few weeks were easily recognized and remained in a holding pattern with price adjustments.

The mid-term trend maintains characteristics that are easily influenced by the external environment.

impression

The day was marked by a combination of small price range and up/down swings, indicating the market's cautiousness about materials.

Although there was some short-term movement, the overall situation lacked a sense of broad direction.

The impression remained that the market was still sensitive to changes in the external environment and the flow was easily swayed by clues.

trade observations

There was a short-term buying advantage for a time as the pushback movement came in.

However, there was also a cautious attitude on the return, and caution continued to be required in following the market.

It seems as if the day was suitable for a response centered on detailed rotation within a certain price range.

checklist

Check announcement times and market reactions for key materials

Confirmation of short-term trend continuity and strength of the push

Check the reaction of the upper and lower limits within the expected range