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| Hours. | home (i.e. hometown, home country) | priority (e.g. traffic) | indicator | Previous Results | forecast | result | Difference between results and expectations | Rate fluctuation after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | November Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [MoM] | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | November Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [yoy] | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★★ | October Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [MoM] | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Oct Industrial Production [MoM] | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | October Industrial Production [yoy] | Graph Display | |||||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | ★ | Oct Manufacturing Production Index [MoM] | Graph Display |
This is a list of indicators of high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day was marked by dollar selling in response to the change in views on U.S. monetary policy and related indicators. The market was also aware of risk adjustment, and short-term holdings of the dollar were being liquidated. Today, we will see whether this trend will continue or settle down. Rebalancing and position adjustments ahead of the weekend are likely to occur, and price movements are likely to lack a sense of direction. We would like to check the progress of the digestion of the materials and anticipate a calm trend.
The previous day, dollar selling was widespread against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates, and the euro was relatively supported. Today, we will see whether this trend will continue or whether there will be an adjustment. With the monetary policy event coming up, a cautious reaction to any new material is expected. On the other hand, we need to be careful of temporary swings due to position adjustments and rebalancing with the weekend in mind. Overall, price movements are likely to be somewhat unstable as we search for a sense of direction.
The previous day saw broad-based dollar selling against the backdrop of changing views on U.S. monetary policy, and the pound was also supported by this trend. Today, we will carefully assess whether this trend of dollar weakness will continue or pause. On the U.K. side, caution about monetary policy and economic trends remains, and positive developments are perceived to be limited. The price action is continuing the previous day's rally, but is calmly searching for a sense of direction. In addition, position adjustments and rebalancing ahead of the weekend require attention.
On the Australian side, monetary policy continues to be cautious, and in the external environment, market cues are being driven by the US dollar's ground. Risk appetite is volatile and easily influenced by commodity trends and stock market reactions. The previous day, the market oscillated up and down but remained within a range, with limited sense of direction. Today, we will be waiting to see how the market reacts after the materials are digested. In addition, attention should be paid to the rebalancing ahead of the weekend.
Hints for Tomorrow Seen in Retrospect
With investors aware of cautious views on U.S. monetary policy and speculations on domestic policies, the overall tone of the market prioritized the digestion of materials. In the European session, short-term buying was seen, but the market failed to cross the upper price milestone and remained sluggish. The buying momentum did not continue, and the market stalled out, with some sell-offs. Participants took a wait-and-see attitude toward the end of the session due to a lack of new leads. As a result, a sense of directionless movement continued, and the price range was limited for the day.
The dollar's return to the previous day's U.S. monetary policy and the situation on the European side, with inflation confirmation reports and current-account-related announcements ahead, were of concern. The impact of the material issues on the market was limited and did not encourage aggressive trading. Therefore, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed from European to US hours. The market lacked upside and downside, and short-term trading was mixed. As a result, prices remained slightly volatile throughout the day, and the day lacked a sense of direction.
Weakness in UK indicators and cautious views on the economic slowdown and monetary policy led to a heavy upward pressure on the pound. In addition, uncertainty about the future made it easy for position adjustments to occur, and buying did not continue. After the European session, there were some scenes of a recovery test, but the market stalled out due to a lack of positive materials. As a result, the day was marked by strong selling throughout the day, albeit in small amounts, and a strong adjustment tone.
With no major changes in monetary policy on the Australian side and a lack of material on the U.S. side, the overall environment remained directionless. From Tokyo to Europe, there was a wait-and-see attitude, and price movements remained modest. In New York, the U.S. dollar was predominantly bought and the Australian dollar was sold against the U.S. dollar. However, the downward pressure was limited and did not reach the previous day's low level. There was some buying back towards the end of the session, resulting in the pair remaining within the range.
Market Information
| classification | Tokyo | London | New York |
|
session (Normal time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| price fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| price fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
PonTan chart paints the background according to the above market session
AI's move: How to attack today?
Market Summary
After the dollar sell-off, a sense of adjustment is gaining momentum and a sense of direction is being searched for.
Change in views on U.S. monetary policy and related indicators are likely to remain in the spotlight.
Environment conducive to consolidation of short-term positions ahead of the weekend
Assumed range
Around 155.00-156.00
The center is expected to be around the mid ¥155 range
Both up and down, at milestones, we want to see how they react.
tactics
Basic stance on range rotation
Sell on the upside and avoid deep selling on the downside.
Do not overdo it during slow price movements.
trigger
Watch for acceleration to the downside on a break below the 155.00 area.
Watch for a short-term buyback on a break above the 156.00 area.
Watch for movement before and after the release of indicators in the U.S. and Europe.
override condition
Continued movement in one direction clearly away from the range
In the event of a sudden change in volume
If the price continues to move against the material
risk event
Results of U.S. Economic Indicators
Statements by financial officials
Flow changes due to weekend factors
Position Management
Reduced size than usual
Shallow gains and clear losses in advance
Even if you have unrealized gains, be cautious about carrying them over the weekend
checklist
How much of the impact of the previous day's dollar selling is still in place?
Is there any flow due to weekend rebalancing?
Is the price movement calm after material digestion?
Market Summary
Selling of the dollar against the backdrop of lower U.S. interest rates, while the euro remained relatively firm
Direction is difficult to determine due to adjustments and rebalancing ahead of the weekend.
Reactions to new materials are likely to be limited ahead of the monetary policy event
Assumed range
Lower limit is a milestone-conscious level - near
Upper limit is the recent high range - around
Basic assumption of swing within the range
tactics
Basic stance is to buy at the push of a button.
Keep upward movement to short-term reactions, and refrain from pursuing too deeply.
Ready to carefully pick up a rebound near the lower end of the range
trigger
Whether or not the highs will be reached in the European time
Interest Rate Trends and Dollar Reaction in Early U.S. Time
Check to see if the initial movement after the release of an important indicator is biased in one direction or the other
override condition
Movement clearly below the lower limit of the range
Acceleration to the downside with volume
Risk-off intensifies and dollar buying prevails
risk event
U.S. economic indicators released
Changes in interest rate outlook due to statements by key figures
Acceleration of position adjustment before the weekend
Position Management
Size is more restrained than usual
Priority for gains is given to short-term targets.
Ensure early withdrawal in case of assumed denial
checklist
Confirming the direction of U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar index
Verify that the initial movement in European time is within expectations.
Be prepared for erratic price movements due to weekend factors
Market Summary
While the pound is likely to be supported by the aftermath of the previous day's broad dollar sell-off, it is also likely to swing up and down due to preweekend adjustments
On the material side, the situation is a mixture of shaky US interest rate expectations and economic caution on the UK side, and it is easy to be cautious about following the situation.
Price action is likely to be conscious of the upward trend, but is likely to erase the return when buying momentum slackens.
Assumed range
Around 1.3200-1.3450
The center is based on a back-and-forth between the 1.3300 level and the lower 1.3300 level, with the assumption that a breakout above or below is likely to wait for materials.
tactics
With the range rotation as the axis, we are focusing on tempo, picking up on the bottom and prioritizing profit-taking on the top.
Do not chase the market when it is rising, and choose to forgo it when the push is shallow.
The downward push will be phased in after the rebound is confirmed, based on the assumption that buybacks are likely to occur
trigger
Above is a firming above the 1.3400 area to see if the short-term buyback continues
On the downside, we expect a move to the lower side of the range with a break below the 1.3280 area and a weak return
The flow is likely to change in Europe and early U.S. hours, and it is easy to react to the headlines of indicators and key figures' statements.
override condition
If the price clearly breaks below the 1.3200 area and the upside remains heavy even after a return, we will remove the assumption of a buy rotation.
Conversely, if the push remains shallow above the 1.3450 area, we will refrain from selling rotation and switch to a wait-and-see approach
risk event
There is a risk that statements or indicators related to the U.S. monetary policy outlook could cause interest rates to change sharply
Pound-driven price movements may be triggered by changes in UK economic-related indicators and policy expectations
Note that rebalancing and position adjustments with the weekend in mind can cause moves that ignore technicals.
Position Management
Split smaller than usual and withdraw early if the initial response is unfavorable.
Gains are made in steps before the upper range limit, and losses are made mechanically, with the aim of settling outside the assumed range.
When unrealized profit is generated, pull the price up to the close of the open price to reduce the risk of a reversal.
checklist
Check the reaction of U.S. interest rates and stocks to see if it is dollar-led or pound-led.
Determine the reversal sign near the upper and lower limits of the range and its establishment after exiting
Inspect for any weekend adjustment flows with the price range entering Europe and the early U.S.
Market Summary
The Australian side continues to take a cautious stance on monetary policy, and the US dollar's position in the external environment will be the main cue.
Risk appetite is not stable and is likely to move in tandem with movements in the stock market and commodities
The day before, the market swung up and down but remained within a range, with limited sense of direction.
Assumed range
Around 0.6600 - around 0.6700
Assuming a transition between price ranges that are easily recognized both above and below.
tactics
Basic policy of range rotation
Do not chase sudden price expansion, prioritize confirmation of rebound or stall.
trigger
Reaction near upper or lower range limits
Increased volume from European to New York hours
Short-term directional change in the U.S. dollar
override condition
Continued clear movement away from the range
When price movements biased in one direction continue with time
risk event
U.S. Related Indicators
Rapid fluctuations in the stock market
Position adjustment with weekend in mind
Position Management
Conscious of a more restrained size than usual
Unrealized gains are split and determined
Review early in case of unexpected movement
checklist
Is the U.S. dollar flow consistent?
Are there any deviations from equities or commodities?
Are there any irregular price movements due to weekend factors?
AI's Afterword: Today's Market
looking back
Returns were slow amid a trend of prioritizing the digestion of materials, and the market continued to lack a sense of direction.
summary
Cautiousness over U.S. monetary policy and speculation over domestic policy kept active trading in check
Buying back in European hours was temporary and did not lead to higher prices
Price range was limited throughout the day, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing.
Today's Price Movement
Tokyo time was marked by small movements and a search for direction.
The market recovered through European hours, but stalled out due to the awareness of a milestone.
Trading was thin at the end of the day and remained in a sideways range
Background & Materials
Uncertainty about the outlook for U.S. monetary policy remained a concern
Intermittent awareness of observations on domestic policy led to a mix of yen buying and selling
Lack of new materials, mainly digestion of existing materials
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Continued to move within the recent range, making it difficult to see short-term direction.
In the return phase, it is easy to be aware of the heaviness of the upper price
Firings continue near the short-term line.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The medium-term trend is holding at higher prices.
Waiting for material to determine trend strength or weakness
The predominant view is based on the assumption that the range will continue.
impression
Impression that market participants are refraining from aggressive position building
A day when we were aware of the lack of materials to lean in one direction.
Calm ground continues as we wait for the next clue.
trade observations
Short-term trading required a conscious response to the limited nature of the price range.
Avoiding forced follow-up and being attentive to reactions is important.
It was felt that careful decision making was necessary, checking for changes in the environment
checklist
Have we seen a reaction after all major materials have been exhausted?
Are you aware of price movements at the upper and lower price milestones?
Are you refraining from unreasonable trading until you get a sense of direction?
looking back
Lacking material clues, the market continued to hold its ground and remained small.
summary
A day of waiting for new materials while continuing the trend after the previous day's U.S. monetary policy
Both Europe and the U.S. had a wait-and-see attitude ahead of key indicators.
Calm market environment with no signs of direction setting
Today's Price Movement
European hours were limited to ups and downs within a narrow range.
Limited movement in US hours, mainly short-term trading
Strong range-like price movements throughout the day
Background & Materials
Conscious of the dollar's return to the previous day's U.S. monetary policy
In Europe, awaiting inflation confirmation report and current-account related announcements
All of the materials had limited impact and did not lead to active trading
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Continued to hold at recent highs
Mixed push and pullback, little sense of direction
Short-term indicators are trending sideways
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Impression that the high price adjustment phase after the rise is continuing
Trend itself is maintained but acceleration is weak
impression
Cautious mood with long waiting period for materials
It wasn't a phase where I was forced to take direction.
trade observations
A day focused on short-term trading and risk management
Range awareness response was required.
checklist
Check the status of the passage of key materials
Watch for changes in price movement at higher prices
Adjusting positions until the next direction
looking back
Weakness in U.K. indices restrained upside, and the day was characterized by a strong, albeit slight, selling trend and a strong adjustment.
summary
Wary of economic slowdown and cautious stance on monetary policy
Returns were limited and lacked a sense of direction.
Today's Price Movement
There was a return test through the European hour.
Selling was easy at higher prices and the rebound did not continue.
Overall, the market remained within a range.
Background & Materials
Weak economic indicators in the U.K. led to a cautious outlook
Aggressive buying was held back due to uncertainty over monetary policy
Relative to the U.S. dollar, there was a lack of material, and the main focus was on adjustment movements.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
Conscious of the heaviness of the upside near the recent highs
Shape of the short term leg is easy to sell back.
Little sense of direction, waiting for a reaction
Technical Memo (mid-term)
Medium-term trend holds but momentum slows
Firings around key levels continue
Waiting time for next material
impression
Impression of position adjustment was conspicuous amid material difficulties
Price movements were calm and not overly biased
trade observations
In the short term, it is effective to take a wait-and-see attitude without forcing the client to chase.
From a medium-term perspective, we need to carefully assess changes in the flow.
checklist
Content of UK-related indicators and how the market perceives them
Returns and stalls at key time frames
Volume and price movement around key levels
looking back
Lack of direction amid material difficulties and selling in the New York time, but remained in a range
summary
Lack of new material in both Australia and the U.S., and the market as a whole took a wait-and-see attitude for the day.
Selling and buying swapped hands at different times of the day, but overall the price movement was calm.
Today's Price Movement
From Tokyo time to European time, the traffic remained in a narrow range.
The Australian dollar was slightly restrained on the upside as the U.S. dollar was bought in the New York time.
Downward pressure was limited and there was some recovery at the end of the day
Background & Materials
No new clues on the Australian side regarding monetary policy, limited market impact
On the U.S. side, there were few high-profile economic indicators and statements by key figures, and active trading was restrained.
Overall, the market was still waiting for materials, and the movement was centered on short-term flows.
Technical Memo (Short-term)
The market has remained within a certain range in the recent past, and it is difficult to get a sense of direction.
Short-term price range is likely to be limited due to a mixture of return selling and push-buying
Minor ups and downs need to be watched until a clear breakout is made.
Technical Memo (mid-term)
The medium-term trend continues to hover in a high price range
In a phase to determine whether the trend is continuing or entering an adjustment, awaiting the emergence of a decision factor.
Conscious of the possibility of increased volatility depending on changes in the environment
impression
It was a difficult day to make trading decisions as it was hard to lean in one direction.
Developments that show the need to carefully follow the differences in price movements at different times of the day.
trade observations
A response was required to assume a range without forcing a position.
In short-term trading, it is important to be aware of the importance of making decisions on gains and withdrawals as early as possible.
checklist
Important indicators and key figures' statements are scheduled in advance.
Risk management is in place for a range market.
I have the option to wait and see until the price moves.
FX Diary